【2021CSファイナル予想】宇都宮?強いよね。序盤・中盤・終盤、隙がないと思うよ。だけど……俺負けないよ。

Bリーグ
スポンサーリンク

え〜、せんすっ、選手たちが躍動する俺のバスケを、皆さんに見せたいね。

○千葉が勝つんじゃね?

ワイ氏の予想は千葉が優勝する。

正直な話、CS開幕時は、宇都宮の優勝確率が60%で、千葉が5%くらいでワイ氏的には千葉の評価はバチクソ低かったが、事情が変わった。

千葉の選手達はCSに入ってステップアップしている。特に、ボールハンドラーのショーター、コー、西村が。(ショーターはシーズン終盤からずっと好調だが)

千葉の下馬評が低かった理由は、シーズン終盤の富樫の依存度が高かったからだ。富樫を守るのが上手い(というか優先度を上げてくる)宇都宮や川崎を相手では2勝するのは無理ゲーだと思っていた。

しかしここに来て、富樫がボールを手放してもゲームを作れる選手の調子が上がってきた。千葉はワンチャンあるで。

・1/23,24の試合で宇都宮は千葉をフルボッコにしている件

1/23 ブレアリ 宇都宮84-64千葉
1/24 ブレアリ 宇都宮88-76千葉

最近の直接対決では宇都宮が圧勝している。これを見て、どちらが有利と見るか。

ワイ氏は千葉が有利だと思う。

なぜなら、宇都宮はカッスな千葉のイメージしか残っていないから対策がアップデートできないからだ。

逆に千葉は、死ぬほど強い宇都宮のイメージと自分達が出来なかったことがわかっているから対策を立てた状態で試合に臨める。

バスケの連戦は、宿題の出し合いと対策の立て合い合戦だ。実質的に、千葉は0勝1敗の状態でファイナルの初戦を迎える情報的優位性がある。

・宇都宮はCSが始まってから初めてブレアリを離れる

宇都宮の不安要素というほどではないが、ブレアリのパワーを借りられないことによるパワーダウンがあると思う。

逆に千葉は、アウェイの沖縄アリーナでの経験を積んでいる。特に0-14ランからのカムバックの経験は勇気を与えてくれるだろう(CSのアウェイで0-14は相当終わってる)。この差は、ゲームの入りに影響するとワイ氏は考える。

NOTE
ちなみに、宇都宮はホームの勝率もアウェイの勝率もあまり変わらない。(H:25-5、A:24-6)

○勝敗のポイント

・リバウンド

リバウンド、リバウンド、アンドリバウンド。

宇都宮と千葉は、チームはタレント揃いの華やかなイメージとは裏腹に、オフェンスリバウンドからのゴリ押しスコアリングで勝ってきている。

リバウンドの差が勝負を分ける。

・宇都宮のディフェンスVS千葉のオフェンス

1/23,24のときは宇都宮のディフェンスに千葉は何も出来なかった。

宇都宮の戦術としては、スイッチがメインで、ウィング位置ではアイス、富樫に対しては要所でブリッツを仕掛けてボールを手放させるのをやってくると思う。

千葉はどれだけスリップを差し込めるかが勝負を分ける。

○Xファクター

・千葉

コー。

説明不要のシンデレラボーイ。1/23、24の試合ではほとんど出場していない。

・宇都宮

テーブス。

今村、岡田、コー・・・次はお前だ。

○まとめ

千葉勝つ。逆張りじゃないで。

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