Bリーグ開幕直前!!B1開幕カードの勝敗予想をするよー!

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○外国籍選手の合流状況が勝敗を分ける開幕節

今は各チームの外国籍選手がやっと入国してきてる段階なので、開幕戦の時点で彼らが合流できているか・練習に参加できているかは勝敗を大きく分ける要素だ。

その状況だが、hiroさんがまとめてくれたので見てみて

○勝敗予想

*名前が先に書かれている方がホーム

・アルバルク東京VS川崎ブレイブサンダース

【予想】東京 1-1 川崎

1-1の予想だが、限りなく0-2に近い1-1だ。

川崎が有利だ。

竹内がいるとはいえ(外国籍+帰化選手)の数が2人と4人では、さすがのA東京も厳しいと考える。

ゲームの前半、外国籍が2人しかいないA東京のビッグマンはアグレッシブにディフェンスしてこないのに対して、ファウルトラブルが怖く無い川崎は始めから全開でゴリゴリ守ってくる展開になる。

↑全開のファジーカスさん達

リードする川崎をA東京が追いかける展開になると予想。

・信州ブレイブウォリアーズVS秋田ノーザンハピネッツ

【予想】信州 0-2 秋田

昨シーズンまでの秋田なら0-2を予想していたが、今シーズンの秋田は信州が苦手とするチームだ。

信州の超重要ディフェンス戦術のパックラインディフェンスは、一言で言えば「ボールマンにはプレッシャーをかけて、ドライブコースは他プレイヤーが徹底的に守るペイントガン守りシステム」なのだが、弱点がある。

開き直ってスリーのキャッチ&シュートをバカスカ打ってくるチームに弱い。

という点だ。

昨シーズンの秋田はスリーの成功率がリーグ最下位だったので信州のカモだったが、今シーズンはプレシーズンでは多投しながらも高確率で決めているようなので、信州にとっては嫌な対戦相手になったと考えられる。

秋田にとっての心配事は、信州のホームでの試合は初めて(久しぶり?)なのでシュートの感覚が掴みづらいかもしれないということだ。

信州が勝つために必要なことは、秋田の超重要戦術「オンザコート0」の時間帯にインサイドを攻めまくることだ。

・名古屋ダイヤモンドドルフィンズVSレバンガ北海道

【予想】名古屋 2-0 北海道

戦力的には名古屋の方が上だが、北海道は簡単な相手ではない。

HCが新しくなったにもかかわらず、チームのコンセプトがハッキリしており選手にもすでに浸透している。新規獲得した選手も北海道のスタイルに合っており、シナジーが高い。

しかし、北海道が真の強さを発揮するのはジョーダン・テイラーが合流後で、今の時期に名古屋Dに勝つのは難しいと予想する。

・エヴェッサ大阪VS広島ドラゴンフライズ

【予想】大阪 2-0 広島

広島の外国籍選手達がB1のインサイドでも支配力を発揮できるかという試金石となる一戦だ。

ワイ氏は、広島にとって難しい試合になると予想。

「強力な外国籍の1ON1とそこからのキックアウトによるスリーポイント」広島のやりたいことを大阪は易々とやらせてはくれないだろう。

広島は、大阪のスカウティングの上を行かなくてはならない。Xファクターのマーフィがどこまでやれるか。

・宇都宮ブレックスVS琉球ゴールデンキングス

【予想】宇都宮 2-0 琉球

さすがの琉球といえども外国籍選手が2人しか揃っていない状態では、今の充実してる宇都宮に勝つのは相当難しい。

琉球が勝つとすれば、インサイドをクーリーが完全に支配したときだ。

しかし、それも難しいだろう。
宇都宮は、スコット、ロシター、ギブス、竹内とタイプは違うが強力なビッグマンが4人いて、犯せるファウル数にも余裕がある。つまり、クーリーに対してフィジカルに守れるということだ。

それでもクーリーなら・・・と思わせるところがこの男の恐ろしいところだが、宇都宮の優位は崩れない。2-0と予想。

・サンロッカーズ渋谷VSシーホース三河

【予想】SR渋谷 2-0 三河

SR渋谷は、三河に対して有利に立ち回れるチームだ。理由は次の通りだ。

・金丸を追いかけ回せるディフェンダーが何人かいる。
・ハーフコートのゆっくりとした展開を好む三河のペースをプレスで乱すことができる。

渋谷にとっての問題は、攻め手が無くなったときに使ってくる「戦術ガードナー」だ。渋谷は昨シーズンのゲームでガードナーに43得点取られたゲームがあった。
それをさせないために、ガードナーを消耗またはファウルトラブルにさせるべく、ペイントを徹底的に攻めたい。

逆に三河がするべきことはチームバスケットを徹底し、可能な限り「戦術ガードナー」を温存することだ。いかにスカウティングを積んだところで、久しぶりに体感するガードナーアタックは初見に等しく、止められるものではない。

ガードナーとチームをコントロールするベテラン、柏木が鍵を握るだろう。

・滋賀レイクスターズVS島根スサノオマジック

【予想】滋賀 0-2 島根

帰化選手と外国籍選手が合計3人いる島根に対して、外国籍選手がクリークモアしかいない滋賀は、かなり厳しい戦いを強いられる。

島根はフロントコートが強力なチームで、今の滋賀の弱点でもあるインサイドを攻めるバスケットを展開してくるだろう。

そこの対処が勝敗を分ける。

ディナイでインサイドに入れさせないか、ダブルチームを仕掛けるか、プレスでボールを運ばせないか、許容して殴り合いを挑むか・・・。

デニスHCの采配に注目だ。

・新潟アルビレックスBBVS横浜ビー・コルセアーズ

【予想】新潟 1-1 横浜

この2チームの対戦は予想が難しい。接戦になり、星を分けると予想。

この2チームは、B2のチームとのプレシーズンゲームで後れを取るなど、プレシーズンでの結果は良くなかった。

その中で、どちらのチームの状態が上向きかといえば新潟だと考えている。

プレシーズンに新潟は、リーグ最強の一角と目される千葉相手に互角以上に戦える時間帯を作れている。徐々にチームが仕上がってきている印象だ。

ただ、戦力的には横浜の方が若干上かな…。やっぱり1-1だ。

・三遠ネオフェニックスVS千葉ジェッツ

【予想】三遠 0-2 千葉

三遠は厳しいホーム開幕戦になるだろう。

三遠がマレーとベインという追加契約の外国籍選手で戦うのに対して、千葉はいつメンのギャビン・ダンカンに加えてサイズまで十分に練習を積んだ状態で開幕に臨んでくる。

日本人の戦力でも千葉に軍配が挙がり、千葉のシュートタッチが相当悪くない限りは勝つのは難しい。

活路があるとすれば、千葉のディフェンスの綻びを突くことだ。序盤の千葉はミスコミュニケーションによってオープンが生まれる場面が多い。

PG陣がここを突けるか。キープレイヤーは寺園だ。

・京都ハンナリーズVS富山グラウジーズ

【予想】京都 1-1 富山

富山のソロモンが開幕に間に合うという情報もあり、戦力的には0-2でもおかしくない

ただプレシーズンを見る限り、京都はすでにディフェンスとリバウンドをハードに行うというマインドがチームに浸透しており、簡単に折れるチームではないと考えている。

また富山は、マブンガはまだしもソロモンがチーム合流直後の試合になるため、十分に連携が取れないと予想。

京都ホームということもあり簡単な展開にはならないと考えて1-1にした。

○まとめ

はよ

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  2. […] 2020.09.26 Bリーグ開幕直前!!B1開幕カードの勝敗予想をするよー! 2020.09.29 【プレシーズンゲーム】秋田VS宇都宮【ワイ氏の反応】 2020.09.12 […]

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