富山グラウジーズの2020-21シーズン戦略!どうすれば強く、人気のあるチームになれるのか?

Bリーグ
スポンサーリンク

富山グラウジーズはもったいないチームだ。人気、実力共に上に行けるポテンシャルがあるにもかかわらず、B1の中で目立った成績を残せていない。

そこで、どのような戦略を取れば2020-21シーズンを上昇していけるかを考える。

○人気を上げるためには?

この答えは簡単だ。東地区で強くなって露出を増やせばいい

なぜなら、富山は次のような人気チームとなる素養を多く備えているからだ。

・宇都を筆頭とする個性的で華のあるタレントの存在

・「カモン」「サトルマエタ」等の全国区のネタがある。

・八村、馬場といったモンスターを生み出した奥田中という謎の研究機関が富山にある。

というように、富山は印象に残りやすいクラブだ。足りないのは強さと少しの営業力だ。

勝てばいい。

↑クラブ関係者

○2020-21シーズンを勝ち進むための戦略

結論としては、次の3点に集約される。

①インサイドの外国籍選手は2人はディフェンスとリバウンドに全振りで、1人は1ON1に強い選手と契約する。

②サトルマエタ、松脇のプレイタイムを増やして3PT多投のスタイルにシフトする。

③オフェンスのオプションとして宇都の優先度を上げる

順を追って説明する。

●レギュレーション変更によるトレンドの変化

2020-21シーズンからオンザコートルールが変わる。

簡単に言えば、外国籍選手を3人ベンチに置くことができ、2人を同時にコートに出すことができる。

これによってBリーグのゲームは次のように変化する。

・インサイドのディフェンスがハードになる

外国籍選手が3人になることで、ファウルトラブルのリスクが減りスタミナ配分が楽になる。その結果外国籍選手のディフェンスがハードになる

正直なところ、2018-20のBリーグの外国籍選手のディフェンスは一部チームを除いてソフトだった。

それも無理は無い。1Qで2つファウルをしたら2Qは出られないのだ。ソフトにならざるをえない。

NOTE
ファウルに余裕ができる4Qからは本気のディフェンスだった。

1試合を通してインサイドのディフェンスがハードになることで、外国籍選手の安易なポストアップからのスコアが望めなくなると予想される。

・日本人VS日本人のマッチアップの重要性が上がる

外国籍選手VS外国籍選手は2019-20シーズンまではオフェンス側有利だったが、2020-21シーズンからは互角になり、外国籍選手にオフェンスを依存することが最適解ではなくなる。

そこで重要になるのが日本人VS日本人のマッチアップだ。

ハードにディフェンスする外国籍選手から点を奪うよりも日本人選手から点を奪うことが有効になる場面が多くなると予想する。

↑宇都さん

【意外な?データ】

「日本人がシュートを打つよりも外国籍がシュートを打った方が効率が良い」という印象があるが、2019-20シーズンのeFG%ランキングのTOP20のうち、日本人選手は7人ランクインしている。

森川、石井、松井、須田、狩野、遠藤、金丸

NOTE
eFG%は3PTの重みを考慮したシュート確率。FTは含まれない。

2019-20シーズンの時点で、日本人選手のオフェンス効率も悪くないとワイ氏は感じる。

2020-21シーズンはこの人数が増えると予想する(正確に言えばTOP20の外国籍選手が減る)。

・3PTの重要性が上がる

前述の通り、インサイドは戦場になる。

そこでゲームの鍵を握るのがスリーポイントシュートだ。

スリーは、インサイドからのキックアウトから1.5倍の得点が入るということももちろんだが、それ以外でも重要な働きがある。

それはスペーシングだ。

スリーポイントの脅威を感じさせることで、インサイドを「修羅の国」から「世紀末」くらいに緩和させることができるのだ。

↑世紀末

バスケ風に言い換えれば、相手ディフェンスのインサイドへの収縮を困難にさせ、ヘルプに行きづらくさせることができる。

つまりスリーの脅威により、本命の外国籍選手のインサイドへのアタックが通りやすくなる。

●富山の戦力分析

ここでは、上記のトレンドに合わせたスタッツだけを取り上げる。

本当は4Factorsと呼ばれる4つのスタッツ(eFG%、TOV%、OR%、FTR)が重要なのだが、ここでは扱わない。

興味があれば、ワイ氏が憧れるしんたろうさんのB.League Analyticsを見て行って↓

【数字で見るBリーグ】新しい4Factorsを探してみた富山グラウジーズ編 | B.League Analytics
今や認知度が上がってきた、勝利に大きく関係するといわれる4つのスタッツ(4Factors)ですが、チームごとにFactorsは変わるかもしれません。 応援しているチームの勝利条件は何なのか、真の4Factorsを探す新企画。 今回は富山グラウジーズを検証します

・2019-20シーズンのチームスタッツ

・オフェンシブレーティング:8位 悪くない

・ディフェンシブレーティング:12位 伸び代

・3PTアテンプト:17位 伸び代
*厳密にはシュートのトータルアテンプトに対してスリーのアテンプトが占める割合が重要なのだが、探せないので3PTアテンプトで許して。

・3PT確率:11位 伸び代

来シーズンに予想されるインサイドが修羅の国になるリーグでは、スリーが怖くない今のスタイルのままでは苦戦を強いられると言わざるをえない。

スリーの確率がチーム2位のライオンズが退団したしね・・・。

●2020-21シーズンの強化点の提案

①ディフェンスの強化のため、ディフェンス全振りの外国籍プレイヤー2人と契約する。

富山の日本人プレイヤーはオフェンス寄りの選手が多い。ディフェンスの強化のためには、優秀なコーチを連れて来るか外国籍選手で強化するしかない。

前者は難しい。外国籍選手で強化しよう。

2人はディフェンス全振りでいい。オフェンシブプレイヤーは年俸が高い。富山のチーム人件費は決して多くない(外国籍選手3人で1億円弱と予想)。

オフェンスとディフェンスを兼ねたプレイヤーの獲得は難しい。中途半端なオフェンシブプレイヤーよりかは、2人ともディフェンスとリバウンド特化で良い(コールビーとかグラッドネスとかヒースみたいな)。

ただ、一人は1ON1が強い外国籍プレイヤーが必要だ。この選手は6thマンで起用して好きにプレイさせる。

②3PT強化のために、松脇に十分なプレイタイムを与える

3PTの強化のために松脇の力が必要だ。

2019-20シーズンのプレイタイム合計2分は草も生えない。

プレイタイムを与えればB1でも活躍できる。というか松脇が活躍しないとキツイ。

③オフェンスのオプションとして宇都の優先度を上げる

富山ブースターの中には、この提案に対して拒否反応を示す人がいるかもしれない。

「阿部がPGの時間帯のほうが・・・」と思うかもしれない。

しかし、それは外国籍選手の1ON1が最適解で、外国籍選手にボールを供給することが重要だったときの話だ。

前述の通り、来シーズンからは日本人選手のオプションが重要になる。

宇都の突破力と1ON1の強さは強力な武器になるという認識が必要だ。
東地区にはサイズが小さいガードが多いことも追い風になるだろう。

○ここまでやっても東地区ではCSに出られない?

ここまでワイ氏の提案どおり、ディフェンシブレーティングを改善させ、スリーのアテンプトと確率を向上させても東の5強に割り込むのは難しい。

東の5強に割り込んでCSに出るためには、日本代表クラスの選手一人と攻守両方で活躍できる外国籍選手が一人必要だ。

●欲しい日本人選手

具体的に誰が欲しいかといえば次の通りだ。

・田中大貴(妄想年俸1億円)

・アキ・チェンバース(妄想年俸2500万円)

・遠藤祐亮(妄想年俸3000万円)

・中山拓哉(妄想年俸2300万円)

上記で想定する2020-21富山は、富樫や比江島のような得点力のあるバックコート陣を擁するチームがゲロキツイ

そのときに上記のプレイヤーをぶん投げておけば何とかしてくれるのでぜひ欲しい。

なお獲得するためには、妄想年俸の1.2倍の資金が必要な模様。

●欲しい外国籍選手

・サイモン先輩(妄想年俸4000万円)

・カーク(妄想年俸2億円)

・ガードナー(妄想年俸1.2億円)

外国選手は国内に目を向けるよりも海外からスカウトしたほうがいいかもしれない。金額的な意味で。

いずれにせよこのクラスの日本人、外国籍選手と契約するためにはプラス1億円の資金が必要だ。そのためには売り上げを伸ばして行かなければならない。

それは1年では達成できない。富山グラウジーズの営業マンの努力と集客力の強化が必要だ。営業ツールとして勝利が必要なので毎年少しずつ進むしかない。

○まとめ

勝て

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