Bリーグ開幕間近!!ワイ氏のレギュラーシーズン順位予想を発表するよ!

Bリーグ
スポンサーリンク

○はじめに

・ブースターの皆様へ

「ウチのチーム舐めんな」と思ってください。

・チーム関係者の皆様へ

「ウチのチーム舐めんな」と思ってください。

○東地区

ワイ氏予想

1位:宇都宮ブレックス
2位:千葉ジェッツ
3位:アルバルク東京
4位:川崎ブレイブサンダース
5位:サンロッカーズ渋谷
6位:秋田ノーザンハピネッツ
7位:富山グラウジーズ
8位:レバンガ北海道
9位:横浜ビーコルセアーズ
10位:新潟アルビレックスBB

・4強と3凶の東地区

東地区は上位4チームが抜け出して、その後を3チームが追う形になると思う。

この二つのグループは、それぞれのグループ内の勝率が団子状態になると予想。

ワイ氏が3凶と呼んでいる渋谷、秋田、富山は、ハマればどのチームからでも勝利をもぎ取れるポテンシャルがある。上位陣からすると戦いたくない対戦相手だ。

・宇都宮と川崎を千葉とA東京が追うレース展開

東地区のレース展開はシンプルだ。

シーズン前半は、宇都宮と川崎が抜け出す。彼らはチームが出来上がっているからだ。

その後を千葉とA東京が追う展開になると予想。

千葉はスーパーチームのように見えるが、序盤は苦戦すると考えている。ローテーションを細かく行うディフェンスシステムが複雑で、新戦力が適応するのに時間がかかるからだ。また序盤は、戦力の見極めのためにプレイタイムをシェアするだろう。目先の勝ち星よりもチームの構築を優先すると予想。

A東京は、Bリーグの中でも特にチャンピオンシップを見据えた戦い方をしてくるチームだ。毎シーズン、終盤になるにつれて仕上がっていく。今シーズンも同様の形になるだろう。

・渋谷が第2グループの理由

世間的には渋谷は上記の4強と同格という評価もあると思うが、ワイ氏はワンランク落ちると思う。

↑渋谷ブースター

その理由は次の2点だ。

1.戦力補強が4強のインフレについていけてない。

渋谷は悪くないんだが、上位チームの補強が的確すぎる
川崎はメンバー変わってないけど、怪我人だらけの昨シーズンであの強さだったからね。

2.昨シーズンにリーグを席巻した戦術が2年目でスカウティングされている。

オールコートプレスやハードヘッジを多用する強力なプレッシャーディフェンスで、昨シーズンは天皇杯優勝まで上り詰めたSR渋谷。

そのチームの研究を各チームが怠っているわけは無く、入念にスカウティングされているはず。伊佐HCもその辺を重々承知で対応策への答えを準備しているとは思うが、苦戦すると予想。

・オフに動きが無かったくせにいろいろ上積みがある秋田

まだプレシーズンの数ゲームだが、秋田には本当に驚かされた。戦略をガラリと変えてきたのだ。

まさか3P多投のチームになるとは・・・!
(ルーキーの多田と大浦のスタイルに合わせたのか・・・?)

しかもこれがハマりそうで、プレシーズンとはいえリーグ最強の一角と目される宇都宮に対して互角の戦いができていた。ディフェンスの強度も相変わらずで、多分強い。

また秋田の評価が高い点は、特別指定選手の補強の目星がついていることだ。

おそらく、天昇(SR)と西野(SR)の2枚の激レアカードが手に入る。彼らの存在は間違いなくチームの助けになるだろう。

↑秋田のフロント

本当に来るかは知らん。

・富山は苦戦すると予想

富山はワイ氏が楽しみにしているチームの1つだが、期待するほど勝ち星を積めないと予想。

それは、東地区のチームとの相性が悪という理由からだ。

東地区のチームは、ポストアップが少ない代わりにピック&ロールとスリーを武器にするチームが多い。
宇都宮、千葉、A東京、SR渋谷、川崎は言うまでもないが、今シーズンは秋田と北海道までもスリーを多投するチームになるだろう。

彼らを止めるためにはビッグマンの機動力が必須になるが、重戦車のスミスにはその役割は不適だ。ゆえに、スミスの時間帯は殴り合う展開になる。

その殴り合いを制することができるか?

難しい。

4強・3凶相手にもタレントパワーでは引けを取らないが、外国籍選手が未だにチームに合流できていない富山とはチームケミストリーの面で雲泥の差がある。

そこをスターパワーゴリ押しで打ち破る展開はワイ氏が望むものだが、現実は甘くないだろう。

○西地区

ワイ氏予想

1位:琉球ゴールデンキングス
2位:大阪エヴェッサ
3位:シーホース三河
4位:名古屋ダイヤモンドドルフィンズ
5位:島根スサノオマジック
6位:三遠ネオフェニックス
7位:広島ドラゴンフライズ
8位:信州ブレイブウォリアーズ
9位:京都ハンナリーズ
10位:滋賀レイクスターズ

・西地区最強は大阪だが、シーズンを制するのは琉球

大阪はマージで強い。

ロマン勢の角野、ドンリー、駒水の加入の話ではない。

ハシタクだ。今シーズンのハシタクの仕上がりはハンパではない。3P王やベスト5を取るレベルだと考えている

PG陣が健康であれば、大阪は西地区最強のチームだ。

・・・しかし、シーズンを制するのは琉球だと予想する。

理由は簡単だ。大阪は天日HCが離脱したため、安定したシーズンを送ることは難しいと見られるのに対し、琉球は始めから最後まで強いからだ。

琉球も新メンバーが多いって?
大丈夫。琉球っぽい選手ばかりだからフィットするまで時間はかからない。というか基本的にクーリーがいれば何とかなる。

・三河は変身をあと一回残している

ある事情により、シーズン中に三河が超強化されるかもしれない。

・想像とちょっと違う名古屋D

ロスターの評価で言えば、最強の一角でもおかしくない名古屋Dだが、

プレシーズンでの内容がイマイチだったため評価が伸びなかった。

名古屋Dは繊細なチームなので上手く分析できていないのだが、斉藤とその他の選手のペースがまだ合っていないという印象だ。

序盤から勝ち星を積みたいのなら、速攻以外のポゼッションではセットプレイを多めにするべきなのかもしれない。決められたプレイなら、選手間の相性とかやりたいプレイとか関係ないからね。

ただ、名古屋Dはセットオフェンスをあんまり使わないんよね。プレを見る限り、狩野用のセットは用意してるみたいだけど。

名古屋Dには期待している分、辛口評価になってしまったが、強いことは間違いないし伸び代の塊でもあるためシーズン中の成長を楽しみにしている。

・昇格組の広島と信州はB1で結果を残せるか

これまでのBリーグでは、B2からの昇格組は例外なく苦戦を強いられてきた。

信州と広島は、その歴史の中で最も昇格直後にB1で通用したチームになれる可能性がある。
昨シーズンのB2での信州と広島は、それほど圧倒的だった。

信州のあまりにも突出したディフェンス(ディフェンシブレーティング83.3
広島のあまりにも突出したオフェンス(オフェンシブレーティング111.3

B2のステージでは、この最強の矛と盾はチートすぎた。

スタイル的に信州と広島のどちらがB1で結果を残しやすいかと言えば、信州だ。

信州の特徴的なパックラインディフェンスは非常に強力な武器で、特にスリーが苦手でドライブが生命線のチームには有効に機能する。昨年の天皇杯で三遠を44点、宇都宮を74点に押さえた結果から、このディフェンスがB1でも通用することは間違いないだろう。

逆に、広島は序盤は苦戦すると考えている。

広島のオフェンスを支えているのは、強力な外国籍のポストからの1ON1とその対応で収縮したディフェンスへ突き刺す高確率のスリーポイントだ。

B1では起点となる1ON1が相手一人に止められて、ディフェンスのズレを作れずに機能不全を起こすとワイ氏は考えている。

ではなぜ、広島の順位が信州の上なのかというと理由は2つある。

①マーフィの加入
②トーマス・ケネディの帰化による新外国籍加入

①マーフィは現時点でB代表クラスの実力を持っていると評価している。プレイスタイル的にも優秀なシューターが多い広島にピッタリなスラッシャーであることも大きな理由だ。スリーも上手い。

②広島は現時点で12人と契約している。これは、ケネディが帰化した後にもう一人契約するために空けているのだろう。広島の財源を鑑みるに、相当な選手を連れてくることが期待される。
ガードの外国籍選手と契約したら起点となるオプションが増えてチームは超強化される。ビッグマンを連れて来たら知らん。

このように、広島はシーズン中の伸び代が大きいため、信州より順位が上になると予想した。

・京都は全くわからない

毎シーズン「今年の京都は絶対弱いだろ」と思うのだが、シーズンが始まってみるとなんやかんや勝つ。やたらと接戦に強い。

チームは新しい方向に舵を切り浜口HCが去ったが、今シーズンも例年と同様に開幕前の下馬評を覆して驚きと喜びをもたらせてくれるか。(訳:ネタにしたいから勝ってくれー!)

○まとめ

開幕はよ

コメント

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